EXTRA: How NECAL 2050 Will Help Nigeria Achieve Climate Goals
The Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN), the Federal Ministry of Environment and the British High Commission, Abuja, on Monday, jointly launched an updated version of the Nigeria Energy Calculator 2050 (NECAL 2050), a bespoke energy and emissions model to assist Nigeria in achieving its climate goals.
Background to the NECAL 2050 Calculator for Nigeria:
NECAL 2050 is an integrated model of energy demand and supply, emissions, and land use in Nigeria.
It aims to identify energy secure pathways for energy demand and supply between 2015 and 2050. It is developed on the framework of the UK 2050 Calculator.
In 2010, the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC, now the Department of Energy, Industry and Industrial Strategy – BEIS) developed the original 2050 Calculator for the UK. However, in practice this model was deemed to be more than expected; DECC had created a very flexible structure which can be (and has been) adapted to integrate and suit different economies.
The methodology of this tool is completely applicable to various countries, regardless of their diversity. In 2020, BEIS launched an updated NECAL 2050 Calculator, the MacKay Carbon Calculator.
It’s a uniquely open, transparent and interactive energy model that allows users to explore options for reducing emissions in a city, region or country, develop evidence-based policies and build pathways to meet long-term emission targets.
Nigeria was one of the 10 countries supported through the UK Government’s International Climate Finance (ICF) programme to develop a Calculator in 2015.
This work was led by the Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN) and the resulting NECAL 2050 was one of the tools used to inform the country’s first NDC and its Sustainable Energy for All Action Agenda (Vision 2030).
Objectives of the NECAL 2050 are:
1. To help users (government, businesses, and individuals) to understand the wide range of possible energy pathways available to the country as we develop our energy sector.
- To provide quantities of energy demand, supply, emissions, and potential implications on issues such as import dependence and land requirement.
To offer a platform to facilitate policy debate about the possible future pathways for the Nigerian energy sector and enable prioritising some potential policy interventions for deeper analysis.
Benefits to Nigeria:
The NECAL 2050 Calculator allows planners and decision-makers to answer important questions, such as how much greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced and how energy demand can be met, with different levels of effort and emissions levels of respective countries over years.
The tool also allows users to verify the viability of long-term goals, encouraging the participation of disparate opinions, facts, and scientific analysis.
It is a ready tool for engaging Nigeria energy experts and non-experts alike in debate around policymaking towards a more secure, sustainable, and affordable energy future for the country, and will improve energy policy assessment, policy formulation, and energy planning for the country, and boost the capacity of ECN to carry out energy systems analysis strengthened.
The Calculator can help policymakers as well as energy producers and consumers (including the public) to understand the energy and emissions related choices they are making, providing a platform for engaging in dialogues on the challenges and opportunities of the future energy system and the responses to climate change.
The NECAL 2050 Calculator allows users to experiment with different energy scenarios for the future and calculates aggregates.
It sets out a range of four trajectories for the types of changes that might occur. These trajectories are intended to reflect the whole range of potential future scenarios that might be seen in that particular sector.
Supporting Nigeria’s NDC:
In 2020, Nigeria completed its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (referred to as “updated NDC”) articulating Nigeria’s contributions to climate mitigation.
The unconditional NDC considers notably improving energy efficiency by 20%, providing 13GW of renewable electricity to rural communities that are not currently connected to the electric power grid, and ending the flaring of gas.
This would lead to a 20% reduction compared to BAU, corresponding to a roughly 70% increase between 2015 and 2030. Higher emission reduction is considered in the conditional NDC, in which international support would notably allow increasing energy efficiency and significantly reducing the use of generators.
This would also lead to a 45% reduction in GHG emissions in 2030 compared to BAU, or 18% increase from 2015 levels.
At COP26 in Glasgow, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari announced that Nigeria will cut its carbon emissions and reach net-zero by 2060.
The President subsequently signed into law a new climate bill that creates five-year emission budgets, with a view to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions between 2050 and 2070.
The 2050 Calculator is a tool that can help turn this vision and ambition into strategy through its use in policymaking by allowing users to verify the viability of long-term goals, encouraging the participation of disparate opinions, facts, and scientific analysis.