For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North AmericaIn the third quarter of 2023, Melatonin FOB New York witnessed a notable upswing, registering a 7% increase from $120,500/mt to $128,840/mt between July and September. This surge reflects a positive market outlook, sustained by robust demand from the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors. The optimism in the domestic market was further fueled by low inventory levels, prompting distributors to incrementally raise prices each month for increased profits. While the U.S. economy’s resurgence contributed to a minor reduction in inflation during this quarter, the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates kept market participants vigilant. From the onset of July, there was a marked uptick in warehouse utilization, inventory, and storage expenses in the U.S., resulting in escalated costs for goods like Melatonin.Asia PacificThe Melatonin price trajectory in the third quarter of 2023 demonstrated a consistent upward trend, fluctuating between $88,600/mt and $90,300/mt. China’s pricing dynamics for Melatonin during this period were influenced by several factors, with the most impactful being the strengthened Yuan (RMB) against the USD and heightened demand from end-user businesses, both domestically and internationally. Despite a slower-than-expected growth in China’s economy in the first half of 2023, the second half experienced a decline in momentum due to increasing deflation, notable youth unemployment, and weak global demand. Sustained demand from the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors played a pivotal role in supporting Melatonin consumption in China. The strengthened Yuan, coupled with a weakened USD, elevated the cost of exporting nutraceuticals, benefiting domestic sellers who quoted profitable prices. Market participants maintained moderate to low inventory levels, ensuring the fulfillment of overall demand, while industrial output remained consistently stable. Towards the end of September, preceding the Golden Week holidays, a slight uptick in both freight and manufacturing occurred due to heightened international demand and inquiries.
EuropeIn alignment with North American and Asian market trends, the German domestic market for Melatonin exhibited a positive trajectory in Q3 2023. In July, as economic conditions stabilized and rebounded, German melatonin suppliers responded by placing substantial orders to replenish supplies and meet the ongoing demand across the country. Importation of Melatonin from Asia, particularly China, remained positive throughout the third quarter, driven by new inquiries from domestic pharmaceutical and nutraceutical companies. The depreciation of the Euro also played a significant role in the price increase, countering the impact of a strong U.S. dollar on domestic players importing goods from China. Economic challenges persisted in the form of rising inflation and an unfavorable manufacturing climate in Germany, maintaining a cautious approach among market investors. Eurozone private sector contraction in September, as per PMI figures, indicated economic challenges, notwithstanding a slight rise in the composite score from 46.7 in August to 47.1 in September. Two interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) further marked the economic landscape for the quarter.
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