For the Quarter Ending September 2023
In Q3, gelatin prices in North America exhibited a mixed pattern, with declines of 2.03% in July and 0.91% in August, followed by a 1.05% increase in September. The United States experienced a drop in business activity during the third quarter, attributed to reduced demand both domestically and internationally. In August, U.S. inflation rose to 3.7%, marking the first increase since June 2022. This uptick was driven by a significant rise in energy costs towards the end of the summer, negatively impacting consumer confidence. The inflationary pressures have deviated from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate, prompting policymakers to consider raising interest rates later in the year. In July, the Federal Reserve increased its key policy interest rate by 0.25%, the eleventh hike in 17 months, aimed at combating persistent inflation and addressing decreased market demand. September saw the Consumer Price Index climb to 3.7%, slightly surpassing the projected 3.6%. Energy costs, particularly gasoline and fuel oil prices, contributed to this increase. Additionally, Chinese shipments slowdown further contributed to the sustained high prices of gelatin. As Q3 concluded, gelatin prices settled at USD 7730/MT CFR Houston.
Gelatin prices in the Asia Pacific region experienced a decline of 0.82% and 1.24% in July and August, respectively, followed by a 1.12% increase in September. China encountered economic challenges, as reflected in the official manufacturing PMI of 49.3 in July, indicating contraction rather than growth. Lower international orders and sales affected commercial and industrial activity. Inflation and rising interest rates globally continued to impact Chinese demand, leading to a six-month consecutive fall in the new export order sub-index in August. In response to economic concerns, China’s central bank lowered its primary interest rate, stimulating market spending and contributing to the upward trajectory of gelatin prices in China. By September, China’s manufacturing PMI showed a soft rise, indicating a positive economic rebound. As Q3 concluded, gelatin prices settled at USD 7230/MT FOB Shanghai.
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Gelatin prices in Germany experienced a substantial decline of 9.35% in September, marking a notable decrease since the beginning of the third quarter. The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in Germany dropped to 41 in July, signaling a sustained decline in new orders from both domestic and foreign markets. Consumer confidence remained low in August due to factors such as rising interest rates, inflation, the oil crisis, and geopolitical issues. High inflation, driven by energy and oil costs, weakened consumer purchasing power and contributed to the downward trend in gelatin prices. Germany’s industrial sector, constituting about one-fifth of the country’s economy, continued its downturn in September due to sluggish demand and rapidly declining output. The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the eleventh consecutive time in September to combat persistent inflation, further contributing to subdued market demand and sustaining the downward trend in gelatin prices. As Q3 concluded, prices settled at USD 9700/MT FOB Hamburg.
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